With the passing of Pope Francis at 88, the big question now is: who’s going to be the next pope? While technically any Catholic man could be chosen, in reality, it’ll most likely be one of the cardinals heading into the secretive conclave in the Vatican.

Predicting who will get the job is tricky—no one saw Francis (then Jorge Mario Bergoglio) coming back in 2013. This time around, there’s no obvious frontrunner, but a few names are floating around, each representing different parts of the Church’s global reach and ideological spectrum.

Some of the more talked-about candidates:

• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67): A progressive favorite, known as “the Asian Francis.” Humble and well-liked, but some worry he’s too young and could hold the role for too long.

• Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76): Could become the first Black pope. Known for work on climate change and social justice. Some think he’s been subtly campaigning for the job, despite saying he’s not interested.

• Cardinal Peter Erdo (Hungary, 72): A top conservative pick. Strong on Church law and seen as a “safe pair of hands,” though he raised some eyebrows during the refugee crisis by disagreeing with Francis.

• Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70): Essentially the Vatican’s prime minister. Great diplomat, but his name is linked to a shady real estate deal that cost the Vatican a lot of money.

Other names in the mix include:

• Cardinal Jose Tolentino Calaca de Mendonca (Portugal): A liberal voice.

• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy): Another progressive, close to Francis.

• Cardinal Mario Grech (Malta): Seen as a potential middle-ground candidate.

• Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea): Conservative, critical of modern gender and religious ideologies.

The conclave will require a two-thirds majority vote, and because Francis appointed most of the current voting cardinals—many from the global south—the choice could reflect broader, more global concerns like poverty, climate, and corruption, rather than just European issues.

Bottom line: there’s no clear favorite, and predicting who will come out of that smoke-filled room is as tricky as ever.