Artificial intelligence could give Latin America and the Caribbean a major economic boost over the next decade — but not every worker is expected to benefit.

New research from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) estimates that widespread AI adoption could increase the region’s economic output by as much as 5.1% over the next 10 years.

The potential impact on workers, however, tells a much more complicated story.

According to the IDB, wages could increase between 2.3% and 5.3% if workers are able to move into industries and jobs that expand as AI becomes more widely adopted.

But if workers are unable to make that transition, wages could fall between 13.5% and 20.9%.

AI could create a huge opportunity for Latin America

The numbers highlight just how important AI could become for a region that has historically struggled with productivity growth.

The IDB estimates that broad AI adoption combined with significant productivity improvements could boost regional GDP by 5.1% after a decade.

But if adoption remains limited, the economic benefit could be dramatically smaller — just 0.3%.

That means simply having access to AI won’t be enough.

Countries will need digital infrastructure, investment, education and training programs that allow businesses and workers to actually use the technology.

Millions of jobs could be affected

Previous research from the World Bank found that roughly 30% to 40% of jobs across Latin America and the Caribbean are exposed in some way to generative AI.

Around 8% to 12% of jobs could see productivity improvements from the technology, while approximately 2% to 5% could face automation risks.

One of the biggest challenges is access.

The World Bank estimates that roughly 17 million jobs in the region that could potentially benefit from generative AI currently lack the digital infrastructure needed to take advantage of it.

The real question: can workers adapt fast enough?

AI could become one of Latin America’s biggest productivity opportunities in decades.

But the IDB’s projections also show that economic growth alone doesn’t guarantee that workers will benefit.

Training, education, digital access and the ability to transition into growing industries could ultimately determine whether AI raises incomes across Latin America — or creates an even wider divide between workers who can take advantage of the technology and those who cannot.

The IDB is expected to release its full 2026 report, From Digitalization to Artificial Intelligence: Turning Promises into Productivity, in November.