Canadians are heading to the polls today in an election that feels like one of the most important in years, focused mainly on affordability issues, tariffs, and how to handle an unpredictable Trump White House. At the center of it all are Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, hoping to end nearly a decade of Liberal rule, and Mark Carney’s Liberals, trying to hang onto power after Justin Trudeau’s resignation earlier this year.

Trudeau’s departure gave the Liberals a boost under Carney, a former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor known for his steady hand during past economic crises. But the race has tightened significantly in the final days, with polls showing almost no space between the two front-runners. Analysts say this is shaping up to be one of the closest two-way battles Canada has seen in a generation.

Beyond the leadership fight, the stakes are huge: whoever wins will have to immediately deal with a hostile and unpredictable U.S. administration and a struggling Canadian economy. Many voters are feeling the pinch of rising living costs and are demanding quick action. Meanwhile, smaller parties like the NDP, Bloc Quebecois, and Green Party are fighting just to survive, with their support dipping below 5% in some polls.

The two leading candidates have interesting parallels. Both Poilievre and Carney have roots in Alberta and ties to former prime minister Stephen Harper’s era—though they took very different paths. Poilievre, a longtime MP and one-time cabinet minister under Harper, rose to national fame after backing the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests and has spent the campaign channeling voter anger at the Liberals. Carney, meanwhile, made his name steering economies through crises, including the 2008 global recession and Brexit.

The campaign has been fierce: Conservatives have tried to paint Carney as more of the same Liberal establishment, while Liberals warn that Poilievre’s populist style and lack of outside governing experience could be dangerous at a volatile time. Both leaders argued their case directly to voters during televised debates, often clashing over who’s better prepared to lead Canada through rising inflation, trade instability, and political tensions.

Advance turnout already hit record highs, with over 7 million Canadians casting ballots early. But under Canada’s electoral system, the number of seats—not just the popular vote—will ultimately decide the next government. In the past two elections, Conservatives actually won more raw votes but still lost, so tonight could bring some surprises.

No matter who wins, the next prime minister will inherit a deeply divided country, rising economic anxiety, and the massive challenge of keeping Canada stable in a world that feels increasingly unstable.